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Monday, September 08, 2014, 12:00 - 13:30

"Financial Crisis in China, Not a 'Black Swan' Event"
David Cui
Head of China Equity Strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research
Language: The speech and Q & A will be in English

 China and the Next Financial Crisis

 It is sometimes said that China has the economy of Japan in the 1970s but the (broken) financial system of Japan in the 1990s.

 David Cui, head of China equity strategy at Bank of American Merrill Lynch, contends that China is indeed on the way to following Japan into the financial abyss, as evidenced by the current hangover from a huge debt binge, a serious property bubble, and a stock market which has stagnated for the last five years.

 Companies are becoming increasingly un-profitable, despite higher levels of debt. Indeed, the combined free cash flow of the Hang Seng China Index in the last quarter showed a negative free cash flow to the tune of $21 billion.

 What is important now is how China responds. Will it be through half-hearted fiscal stimulus and incontinent monetary loosening or through the smashing of vested interest groups and swinging structural reform? All depends on the dedication to reform of the Chinese leadership team. Dedication to reform is essential as it is clear that China is amassing a collection of non-competitive companies and rotten banks, which would not look at all out of place in Japan 25 years ago.

 Come to this event to hear the contrarian, bearish and stimulating views of the strategist voted to the Number 1 spot by the prestigious Institutional Investor magazine.

 Please reserve in advance, 3211-3161 or on the website(still & TV cameras inclusive). The charge for members/members' guest is 1,750/2,700 yen; non-members including guest-members eligible to attend may pay in cash. (Menu: Sautéed Chicken with Mustard Sauce.) Reservations canceled less than one hour in advance for working press members, and 24 hours for all others, will be charged in full. Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation. For meal service, please enter the room by 12:25.

 *Working Pressは1時間、Associate, non-memberは24時間以内のキャンセルはフルチャージとなりますのでご注意ください。なおキャンセルは電話でのみ承ります。

Professional Acitivties Committee

Sep 08 14 PL David Cui003

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