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Friday, June 01, 2018, 16:00 - 17:00

 

Tetsuo Kotani, Associate Professor of Meikai University &

Senior Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)

Language: The speech and Q & A will be in English)

One thing that many security analysts would agree on these days is that the traditional model of projection and analysis no longer works especially when it comes to North Korea and the U.S.

It is true that few had been able to offer a precise analysis of the hermit nation lead by the erratic leader, Kim Jong Un, who likes to play with the international community. But what's worsening situation is the fact that we have the tweeter in chief, a.k.a, U.S. President Donald J. Trump, who made the important announcement of the cancellation of the historic U.S.-North Korea meeting over twitter, SNS stunning the international community.

While analysts were busy making comments to the news programs, newspapers, and blogs about what this cancellation meant, they were again dumbstruck by the news that the summit is now back on.

Summit is likely to take place on June 12 in Singapore, as they originally planned. But questions remain unanswered as we have two leaders who do not operate within the traditional diplomatic and political protocols. Is really happening this time or not? Is North Korea ready to give up the nuclear arsenal, at least the ICBMs? What Japan would do if Trump strikes a deal that only serves U.S. interests? What about the China factor? If the deals don't follow through, what kind of actions would the U.S and North Korea take and what would be the implication for Japan?

The club is inviting Testuo Kotani, an associate professor, Meikai University and senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs. Kotani was one of few analysts who had access to the Trump transition team and still keep in touch with the administration. He would tell us the art of predicting the unpredictable at a time of extremely unpredictable national security environment and yet offer potential scenarios for the upcoming summit, if held as scheduled.

Please reserve in advance, 3211-3161 or on the website (still & TV cameras inclusive). Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation.

Professional Activities Committee

Jun 01 18 PC Tetsuo Kotani042

 

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