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Thursday, May 11, 2017, 11:30 - 13:00

The Global Economic Outlook: Trump, Brexit, Abenomics and more

Language: The speech and Q & A will be in English

The global economy appears on a solid path. GDP growth in Japan and elsewhere is somewhat stronger than previously forecast. Stock markets are clearly expecting more to come, with sharp rises over the past six months on the back of promised deregulation, tax cuts and fiscal stimulus by the Trump administration.

At the same time, the voices of gloom are rising ever louder. They contend that many of the Trump promises are unachievable, given the already large U.S. budget deficit. There is also concern that Trump’s dislike of multilateral trade agreements (starting with his termination of the U.S. involvement in TPP) will instead spark a trade war with key partners.

In Japan, GDP growth has come largely from improved export performance, undercutting the main goal of the "Abenomics" economic program to foster demand-led growth through higher wages and more domestic spending by consumers. Wage growth is slow and the Bank of Japan appears no closer to its goal of 2% inflation despite massive monetary stimulus since April 2013.

Our guest is in a unique position to bring together all of these disparate issues. Paul Sheard is Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of S&P Global, spearheading the company's economic and market analysis. Teams led by Sheard provide the macroeconomic forecasts used by Standard & Poor's analysts during the ratings process, conduct fixed income research, and analyze credit ratings performance. Sheard chairs the Standard & Poor's Academic Council and helps to oversee the S&P Global Institute.

Previously, Sheard held chief economist positions at Nomura Securities and at Lehman Brothers and earlier he had been Head of Japan Equity Investments and Japan Strategist at Baring Asset Management in Tokyo. He speaks regularly at major conferences around the world and his views are frequently quoted in the international media. He was a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on the International Monetary System in 2010-12.

Please reserve in advance, 3211-3161 or on the website (still & TV cameras inclusive). The charge for members/members' guest is 1,750/2,700 yen; non-members eligible to attend may pay in cash by e mail reservation (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ). (Menu: chicken confit) Reservations canceled less than one hour in advance for working press members, and 24 hours for all others, will be charged in full. Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation. For meal service, please enter the room by 11:55.

Professional Activities Committee

May 11 17 PL Paul Sheard025

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