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Wednesday, February 13, 2019, 14:00 - 15:00

Robert Geller, Professor Emeritus of Seismology, the University of Tokyo

(The speech and Q & A will be in English with interpretation)

"The 'Imminent' Nankai Trough Mega Quake: Myth or Reality?"

Since 1965 the Japanese government has unsuccessfully attempted to predict earthquakes. Geller reviews these unsuccessful efforts and discusses the scientific problems. In particular, he explains why the government's claim that there is a 70-80% chance that a magnitude-9 earthquake will strike the Nankai Trough region in the next 30 years should not be accepted. Present science can say no more than that a large earthquake can strike Japan anywhere, at any time, and without warning; it is, alas, impossible to reliably state that one place is more or less dangerous than another. Geller faults Japan's media for their largely uncritical reporting of the government's earthquake forecasts.

Robert Geller was born in New York City in 1952; he is a U.S. citizen and a permanent resident of Japan. He is now Professor Emeritus of Seismology of the University of Tokyo. He received his education from the California Institute of Technology (BS 1973; MS 1975; PhD 1977). After six years as Assistant Professor at Stanford University he was appointed Associate Professor (the first permanent foreign faculty member) at the University of Tokyo in 1984, and promoted to full professor in 1999. He retired in 2017. He is a Fellow of the Japan Geoscience Union. His new book (in Japanese, published by 東京堂出版) is titled "ゲラーさん、ニッポンに物申す" ("Hey, Japan, Mr. Geller has a few things to tell you").

5F Marunouchi Nijubashi Bldg., 3-2-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0005
Doors open for TV crew at 13:15, For all others at 13:30, still cameras included.
Please reserve in advance, 03-3211-3161 or on the website (still & TV cameras inclusive). Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation.

Professional Activities Committee

Feb 13 19 PC Robert Geller023

 

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