When Naoto Kan became the 15th prime minister of the Heisei era, it provoked a good deal of media analysis on the nature of Japan’s “revolving-door,” “easily forgettable,” “ineffective” and “weak” leaders. There was, however, less media analysis -- from the domestic press in particular -- on its own role in the inability of Japanese prime ministers to maintain popularity long enough to have any chance of actually governing.

Junichiro Koizumi aside, the rest of Japan’s PMs from the last two decades have struggled to have their faces even remembered on the international stage, let alone be able to make any serious attempt to tackle mounting problems back home. While few would argue that Kan’s predecessor, Yukio Hatoyama, was a charismatic communicator or savvy political operator, the speed at which his approval ratings fell off a cliff must raise questions as to the nature of Japanese political reporting and also the fickleness of the electorate.

When Hatoyama took power in an atmosphere of palpable, if cautious, optimism in September 2009, his cabinet’s approval rating was logged at 71% by the Asahi Shimbun; by the week of his downfall, those digits had been literally reversed to 17%, according to a poll by the same newspaper. Put another way, in less than nine months, more than half of the populace had changed their mind on an administration that had changed very little in terms of policy or personnel.

Although high initial expectations of politicians followed by disillusionment are hardly unique in Japan, the serial pattern of premiers’ approval ratings rapidly diving from such highs to such lows in such a short period of time is certainly unusual in a mature democracy.

In most of the industrialized world there are media organizations that range across the political spectrum and that tend to be more supportive or harsh toward governments that either share or don’t share their agendas. The Japanese media, despite the generally liberal leanings of the Asahi and Mainichi, often speak with a unified voice on political matters, especially when it comes to their take on the government of the day.

Once the press pack -- a particularly apt term here -- has turned on a prime minister or administration, it usually does so as one, and the government is left without a media friend. This phenomenon appears to be exacerbated by reporting practices such as kisha clubs and memo awase -- as well as a cultural tendency towards group-think and a particularly high level of trust in the print media.

Polls show that up to 90% of the population believes what they read in the major Japanese newspapers; much higher than comparable figures for other countries. If all of the mainstream news outlets decide that the prime minister is a spoiled obo-chan out of touch with ordinary people and incapable of demonstrating leadership, that becomes a very difficult message to counteract.

“In recent years the media has moved toward a more neutral stance with regard to commentary on policy matters,” suggests Teturo Kato, a visiting professor of politics at Waseda University. “This has led to a shift in emphasis from policy to the leadership qualities of prime ministers.

“The media now have an even bigger role in creating and destroying prime ministers.”

A former reporter at the Asahi explains how the negative messages from different branches of the media can feed off each other once criticism of a prime minister starts:

“I’ve seen the political correspondents watching the evening news programs as they are writing their stories for the next morning’s edition. If the TV programs are being harsh on the prime minister, then they are influenced to take a tougher line in their articles. Then the next morning the TV journalists read the papers and think they should be harsher in their programs, and the process starts again -- like feedback when music gets distorted,” says the veteran reporter, who suggests that the even more vitriolic criticism from online blogs is now getting fed into the system by the print journalists who read them.

The Asahi itself, the self-styled leading liberal paper, might have been expected to have been a little more sympathetic to the ostensibly left-of-center Hatoyama administration, but was often even more brutal in its criticism than the conservative dailies.

The former Asahi reporter traces the paper’s uncompromising attitude toward the former administration to a long-running feud with Ichiro Ozawa, and a conviction that he and Hatoyama were little more than an extension of the old LDP money politics in another guise.

The bad blood with Ozawa dates back to the previous non-LDP coalition in 1994, when the Asahi reported an off-record quote that went along the lines of, “It’s up to me which woman I sleep with.” While the remark -- made by a drunken Ozawa in front of three (non-Asahi) journalists -- referred not to his sexual prowess but his choice of coalition partner, he was seemingly less than pleased the paper put it on the front page. After he cut the Asahi’s reporting access, it was forced to climb down with a puff piece that acted as a form of apology to the “shadow shogun” -- but allegedly left a lingering resentment amongst the political editorial staff.

The political editor at the time, Kotaro Akiyama, is now president and CEO of the Asahi, while other reporters involved have gone on to senior positions at the paper and the weekly Asahi Shukan magazine. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Asahi Shukan wasn’t much of a cheerleader for the Hatoyama/Ozawa administration either.

Polls conducted on Kan’s new cabinet in the days after its formation have shown approval ratings ranging from 60% (Asahi) to 68% (Nikkei/TV Tokyo). Though the departure of Hatoyama and Ozawa was clearly the main factor in the rebound, many of the same cabinet ministers and policies remain in place as support has as much as quadrupled.

A honeymoon period is really too short to describe the length of time the media have taken before giving new prime ministers a hard time in recent years; barely have they been able to consummate their marriage with the public before the character assassinations start. Whether Kan’s unusually high reputation and “son of a salaryman” image buy him a little extra time, remains to be seen. If an opinion piece in the Nikkei less than 24 hours after his election as new head of the DPJ is anything to go by, possibly not.

“Will DPJ’s 2nd Act Bring More Disappointment?” ran the headline. ❶