Issue:
April 2024 | Cover Story
With a year to go before it opens, the World Expo is plagued by delays, rising costs and a skeptical public
On April 13 next year, organizers of the Osaka Kansai Japan Expo hope that international VIPs, exhibitors, domestic and international media – including a good number of FCCJ members – and the public will gather on Yumeshima island in Osaka Bay to kick off the event.
But unless things change, and quickly, any excitement generated by the opening festivities could quickly give way to disappointment over a lack of foreign pavilions, concerns about traffic jams, ticket prices – even long lines for the very expensive restrooms. The worst-case scenario is an Expo that ends six months later with far fewer than the promised 28 million visitors, leaving the event deeply in the red and Osaka residents stuck with footing a good chunk of the bill in the form of higher taxes.
Much of the current focus is on the delayed construction of foreign pavilions. Expo organizers have placed the blame on two developments beyond their control: a worldwide spike in the cost of imported construction materials after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and a labor shortage that makes it difficult and more expensive to hire enough workers.
The original Expo blueprint said construction of foreign country pavilions would be completed later this year to allow each country enough time to move into their space, import and set up the display materials, and train staff.
But as of early March, the Mainichi Shimbun reported, of the 55 countries organizers had originally predicted would construct large, freestanding, uniquely designed Type A pavilions, only eight had broken ground. While many countries announced their pavilion design plans, 19 of the 55 had yet to source a Japanese general contractor to turn their announcements into bricks and mortar.
Worse still, any deals done between foreign countries and Japanese contractors must adhere to a new law that went into effect on April 1 limiting overtime hours in the construction industry. Contractors are skittish about signing contracts for large Expo pavilions at an agreed price, because nobody truly knows how the overtime cap will affect costs in the coming months.
There are fears that it will result in higher labor costs, as more people might suddenly be needed to ensure the overtime cap is observed. But if more construction workers are needed than were specified when a contract was signed, who will be stuck with additional labor costs? And that is assuming that enough workers can be secured to build a pavilion and turn it over to the host country before the Expo’s April 13 opening date.
The pavilions for the private sector differ from those for exhibiting countries. There have been far fewer problems and construction delays with the former, but even if the Expo opens with most of the 55 countries occupying a pavilion - either their own Type A space or a hybrid compromise - organizers have not given reassuring answers to another question: how easy will it be for visitors to access the Expo site?
Osaka’s Chuo subway line is being extended out to the venue, and shuttle bus service will be available. The travel time from Osaka station by subway will be under an hour. But the Chuo Line can be extremely crowded during the morning and evening rush hours.
Shuttle buses and cars could take even longer to reach the Expo site from central Osaka. Only two tunnels to Yumeshima will be available for road traffic – visitors and Expo staff, as well as delivery trucks and vehicles being used for another Yumeshima project that organizers are reluctant to mention: a casino resort.
Nippon Ishin no Kai’s co-founder and former Osaka governor Toru Hashimoto originally floated the idea of an Osaka casino in September 2009. When Shinzo Abe returned as prime minister in 2012, Hashimoto and Ishin’s other co-founder, Ichiro Matsui, became good friends with Abe and his chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, and convinced them to back legislation to legalise casinos.
The Diet passed a national casino promotion bill in 2013. In April the following year, Matsui said he wanted an Osaka casino resort on Yumeshima, even though Hashimoto had suggested it be built elsewhere, perhaps closer to Kansai International Airport – a hub for tourists from the rest of Asia.
In August 2014, Matsui announced that Osaka would bid for the 2025 Expo. Two months later, the politically influential Kansai Economic Federation, which backed the casino and the Expo, formed a discussion group to discuss Yumeshima’s development.
Their plan was released in August 2017, a few months after Osaka set up a casino promotion office and Abe’s cabinet approved the 2025 Expo bid. Kansai business leaders envisioned a casino resort – complete with hotels, shopping malls and an international convention center – opening on Yumeshima in 2024, around the time that construction for the nearby Expo was due for completion. A Yumeshima-based Expo, they hoped, would bring domestic and international attention to the casino, and ensure a steady stream of punters after the Expo had ended.
But skepticism over legalized casino gambling in Japan proved greater than anticipated, not just among the public, but also in the bureaucracy. The National Police Agency was concerned about a possible rise in street crime, the finance ministry about money laundering and tax evasion.
The result was a delay in government approval for casino projects that disrupted Osaka’s plans after it won the right to host the 2025 Expo in late 2018. Now, rather than opening before Expo, the casino would have to be built while the Expo was taking place next door.
That means drivers heading to and from the Expo site will have to share roads with casino-related construction vehicles, running the risk of being stuck in traffic jams at busy times of the day. Regular visitors will have to ask themselves whether buying an Expo ticket is worth the hassle, especially with Universal Studios Japan as a nearby alternative.
Expo organizers predict 28 million people – about 150,000 a day – will visit the event. Advance tickets went on sale late last year, but as of mid-March, only 764,000 had been sold. One-day adult tickets are ¥7,500 if bought at the entrance. While advance tickets are ¥6,000, that can add up to a hefty sum for, say, a family of four when you factor in additional costs for transportation, meals, souvenirs, and, possibly, accommodation. If other cheaper, attractive entertainment options are available in Osaka, especially during the summer vacation, Expo organisers could struggle to reach their visitor target.
Expo supporters have grumbled about the negative media coverage. As one Osaka journalist told me, Dentsu is not directly involved in promoting Expo or handling the media, given its role in Tokyo 2020 Olympic scandals. Instead, it seems that the PR operation has been turned over to a hastily assembled collection of local bureaucrats and others who, while polite on the phone, do not have the authority or ability to satisfactorily deal with basic inquiries from journalists.
With a year to go, there is still time to solve most of the logistical problems plaguing Expo. But organizers and their friends in the Kansai political and corporate community are too busy pointing the finger of blame at others - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the construction industry, and a skeptical media – to notice that time is running out.
Unless they stop complaining and deal quickly and openly with the problems, the legacy of the 2025 Expo may not be the one they were hoping for. But it could well be the one they deserve.
Eric Johnston is the Senior National Correspondent for the Japan Times. Views expressed within are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Japan Times.
