Monday, October 23, 2017, 12:00 - 13:30

"Election Result Analysis"

Language: The speech and Q & A will be in English

 

Weeks before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the Diet, Abe’s strong powerbase showed sign of erosion. The scandal surrounding Kake and Moritomo, in which he did favors to his “friends,” was taking the toll of his once invincible and almost dictator-like leadership, even within his own Liberal Democratic Party.

One would think calling a snap election at such timing would be suicidal especially when voters, as well as Japanese media across the board, including the conservative ones, started to criticize the prime minister who has become the third longest-serving prime minister. Many critics say that his calling a snap election is a self-serving ploy to dodge the further questioning from the opposition camp at the extraordinary Diet session although he listed social welfare and the threat from North Korea as the reasons for calling the general election.

Yet, after the election kicked off, polls by Japanese newspapers show that the LDP and its junior coalition partner New Komeito are likely to secure more than 300 seats, surpassing the majority. And if combined with other like-minded parties, such as Nihon Ishin no Kai, Abe’s longstanding political goal to revise Japan’s war-renouncing Constitution can be a more realistic option.

It’s too early to tell as one can never tell the results until the ballot boxes are opened. Still, whoever wins the election in the Sunday’s poll, a deep analysis on the current state of Japanese politics is required.

FCCJ is inviting Gerald Curtis, Burgess Professor of Political Science, Columbia University to review the recent political developments and the election results. As a decades-long watcher of Japanese politics, Curtis said in recent interviews that a lot of people support Abe just because they think the alternatives are worse and that Abe knows how to grab luck, meaning that they do not so support Abe proactively. Curtis will also share what to expect next. What would the election results tell us about Abe? And how and if Abe can enjoy his political powerbase after the election and what’s required for the opposition parties to be a more effective counterbalance?

Please reserve in advance, 3211-3161 or on the website (still & TV cameras inclusive). The charge for members/members' guest is 1,750/2,700 yen; non-members including guest-members eligible to attend may pay in cash. (Menu: chicken with mustard and rosemary) Reservations canceled less than one hour in advance for working press members, and 24 hours for all others, will be charged in full. Reservations and cancellations are not complete without confirmation. For meal service, please enter the room by 11:55.

Professional Activities Committee