Issue:
January 2023 | Letter from Hokkaido
Sapporo’s bid for the 2030 Winter Olympics is down, but far from out
One year ago, Sapporo’s 2030 Winter Olympic boosters confidently predicted the future. A campaign to pump up enthusiasm for the Games would take place in February before a city-sponsored survey in March resulted in a majority of people supporting the bid.
After that, the PR blitz would be expanded nationwide, attracting further support. By the end of 2022, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) would have quietly designated Sapporo the most likely 2030 host.
After telling G7 environment ministers meeting in Sapporo in April 2023 that the bid was the cleanest and greenest ever, mayor Katsuhiro Akimoto and pro-Olympic city representatives would be re-elected in local elections the same month. The IOC’s decision on the host city, due in May 2023, would be a mere formality, and Sapporo’s preparations could begin from the second half of the year.
That was the original plan. But then reality intervened in the form of an ongoing, seemingly endless series of scandals related to the financially disastrous Tokyo Olympics, which cost more than twice the original estimate, and turned the Sapporo 2030 dream into an Olympic-sized PR nightmare that shows no signs of fading.
As the new year begins, the bid is in deep trouble. Hokkaido media surveys late last year indicated that support among residents of Sapporo, put at 52% percent in a March survey, had fallen well under 50%. As a result, the Japanese Olympic Committee, Akimoto, local Liberal Democratic Party officials and other bid supporters find themselves increasingly at odds with public sentiment. The IOC is worried, and announced in December it would postpone its final decision on the 2030 host, probably until 2024.
Even Hokkaido and Sapporo senior business leaders – many of whom own or manage construction firms – are increasingly doubtful about the wisdom of going forward with the bid.
They see few financial benefits to their own firms, given that the bid does not entail any new massive construction contracts – existing facilities would be used for many events – or large-scale municipal projects. In addition, the city has yet to give a convincing guarantee that firms would not be saddled with tax bills for any bid-related cost overruns.
The Tokyo Olympics scandals and resulting backlash forced Akimoto to announce Sapporo would halt its PR activities and once again conduct a public opinion survey. If a majority oppose the bid, the mayor said he would "respect the will of the people", and that continuing to pursue the Games would be "difficult".
But Akimoto and the local LDP may still try to ensure the “will of the people” is more in line with their own views. The March 2022 survey was criticized for wording questions in a way that made it easier to elicit answers that could be interpreted as showing more support than actually existed. Calls are being now being heard for the follow-up survey to be devised in consultation with a neutral third party, to better ensure questions that elicit more objective responses.
Still, the pro-bid faction is looking to conduct the next survey in a way that could blunt the opposition.
First, they want a national poll, not just one limited to people in Sapporo, or even Hokkaido. Attitudes elsewhere, they hope, will prove to be more positive – or at least less negative – than those in Sapporo itself. After all, the taxpayers of Tokyo or Kansai won’t be asked to pay to fund the Games or pick up the tab if the whole scheme goes over budget. Signs that the bid enjoys noticeable levels of support elsewhere in Japan would help dilute what is expected to be strong opposition in Sapporo.
Second, Akimoto has not firmly declared Sapporo will abandon its 2030 bid if a majority indicate they oppose it. Promising to respect the will of the people and saying only that it would be “difficult”, as opposed to “impossible”, to continue if the survey shows most don’t want the Games still theoretically gives supporters enough political wiggle room to go forward, whatever the final numbers.
Akimoto and the local LDP have already said no to holding a local referendum on the Games, and face little immediate political risk in taking that stance. All are virtually guaranteed to win re-election in April regardless of the bid (cited as a concern by only 11% of respondents in a recent Hokkaido Shimbun poll about local election issues).
They also appear to have the support of the IOC. The 2030 decision was postponed until 2024, they believe, in the hope Japanese public anger over the Tokyo Olympic scandals will have faded by then, and opposition to Sapporo 2030 will not be as strong.
The irony is that, if Sapporo stays in the race, it has virtually no competition. The British Columbia state government dropped its support for Vancouver’s 2030 bid, citing cost concerns. Salt Lake City is in the 2030 race … sort of. In fact, Salt Lake and the American corporate sponsors who would fund their bid, though ready to host the Games if necessary, have said they would prefer to aim for 2034 due to the logistics and expense of the 2028 Summer Games taking place in Los Angeles.
The IOC, perhaps fearing Sapporo's withdrawal, indicated it would not close the door if other potential candidates for 2030 said they wanted to talk. They may also prefer to award the 2030 and 2034 Winter Games at the same time, in order to help ease concerns over future hosting - not only due to endemic cost overruns and corruption scandals that have turned many cities against the bidding process, but also because climate change is expected to hit the Winter Games particularly hard in the coming years.
A warming planet and increased use of artificial snow – a trend that has raised safety concerns among athletes – mean fewer locations worldwide can promise ideal the natural snowfall and winter weather conditions needed for a successful Winter Games. A recent University of Waterloo study showed Sapporo is expected to be one of the few cities able to keep that promise in the coming years.
With that in mind, it is no wonder the IOC wants to help keep Sapporo in the 2030 race. Even if it seems clear that, as 2023 begins, a lot of people in Sapporo want to get out.
Eric Johnston is the Senior National Correspondent for The Japan Times. Views expressed within are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of The Japan Times.
