Issue:
July 2025 | Letter from Hokkaido
Populist parties are unlikely to make waves in Hokkaido at this month’s upper house elections
On July 20, Japanese voters will interrupt a three-day holiday weekend to cast their ballots in the upper house elections. At the end of June, there was uncertainty over whether the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito would retain their majority. A loss of 50 or more seats would leave the ruling parties without a majority in either the lower or the upper chambers – spelling chaos for Japan’s political landscape.
Much of the media coverage is focused on smaller populist opposition parties that are aggressively trying to court younger, urban voters, especially in the Kanto, Chubu, and Kansai areas, where half of the country’s population lives. The daily lives and views and political priorities of these urbanites often differ from those in rural regions.
That is mostly true of Hokkaido. Yes, Sapporo and a couple of other cities are home to sizable numbers of younger voters who identify with opposition party messaging on lowering the consumption tax, and reforming the pension and social welfare systems.
But Hokkaido is first and foremost about traditional agricultural politics, dominated by older, naturally cautious voters who are generally distrustful of younger left- and right-wing ideologues.
That helps explain why the LDP is so weak in Hokkaido. Having abandoned its postwar farmer-friendly policies to embrace a form of Reaganite/Thatcherite economic reforms favored by more urban voters, the party’s Hokkaido chapter was roundly punished in last October’s lower house elections and replaced by the less corporatist Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ). Shocked local LDP supporters blamed the party’s lingering slush fund scandal, but the reality is that the party had long since lost its dominance of Hokkaido politics.
Against that backdrop, the return of Muneo Suzuki as an LDP candidate in a PR constituency has caused consternation among people in other parts of Japan. But here he retains a large following. If Suzuki wins an upper house seat, he will again become a party player, most likely working behind the scenes. And the LDP will struggle to ignore his voice on the tricky subject of Japan-Russia relations.
But what will Suzuki, the LDP, and the opposition parties say about a bigger, more immediate issue facing Hokkaido – the threat of increased U.S. imports of rice, soybeans, and corn?
A decade ago, farmers in Obihiro and central Hokkaido led the charge against Japan entering the Trans-Pacific Partnership, citing concerns that imports would hurt the prefecture’s agricultural sector. Opposition parties, even those appealing to younger voters, now talk about the need for Japan to produce more of its own food – a message that neoliberals in more established parties and their big business supporters do not want to hear.
When it comes to agriculture in Hokkaido, self-reliance means assuring the farm lobby that imports will be kept to a minimum, and that central government assistance will be provided. The LDP has an advantage here, but the CDP is also getting a similar message out to voters. At least the prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, appears to empathize with farmers.
Government support for the trucking and transportation industries, both crucial to Hokkaido's agricultural sector, will also be a major election concern. Driver shortages, the rising cost of gasoline, and financing the maintenance of roads, are issues that the ruling and opposition parties will have to address as their candidates take their campaigns through the back roads and wide open fields of Hokkaido.
The chief concern among people in Hokkaido’s cities is the future of the Rapidus semiconductor foundry. No one knows if the foundry, which in two years’ time will supposedly start producing the world’s smallest microchips, will be completed on schedule. Insiders are already warning that the start date is unrealistic, citing a host of setbacks from a lack of qualified workers and standard engineering issues. Yet Rapidus executives and investors, as well as the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, refuse to come clean about the extent of the problems.
That stance is backfiring, however. Hokkaido investors are cautious about the project, wondering who in the political world has the leadership skills to make it a success. Scandal-plagued LDP elders such as Akira Amari, and younger members outside the party’s mainstream such as Takayuki Kobayashi, are trying to take credit for bringing Rapidus to Hokkaido. But no one here really believes either of them has the political clout to make the project a success.
Kobayashi's recent visit to Hokkaido was practically ignored by the Hokkaido media, which chose instead to focus on the LDP Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama, who was here to meet senior politicians and business leaders to discuss concerns about rising prices and the threat of U.S. imports and tariffs.
The Chitose representative in the lower house is now a CDP member who, to the shock of the LDP and U.S. government – which preferred an alliance-friendly LDP lawmaker to represent a city that hosts a U.S. military base – defeated the LDP incumbent last October.
But the CDP has only recently begun to address Rapidus and its impact on Hokkaido. Those with a stake in the project will keep a close watch on where candidates in the upper house elections stand on the project, regardless of whether they believe it will save the prefecture's economy or dismiss it as a central government-funded boondoggle.
Either way, while some Hokkaido voters are drawn to the populist rhetoric that smaller opposition parties are using to court young urbanites in Honshu’s major cities, the tactic is unlikely to translate into decisive support at the ballot box here. Hokkaido’s voters have different priorities to their counterparts in Honshu, and are more likely to stick with the established parties.
Eric Johnston is the Senior National Correspondent for the Japan Times. Views expressed within are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Japan Times.
