Issue:
September 2023
Preparations for next year’s World Expo in Osaka are in disarray
With fewer than 600 days to the start of the 2025 Osaka Expo, organizers are grappling with a growing list of problems. At the time of writing, only two international pavilion construction applications have been confirmed among an expected 50. Preparations have been hit by a labor shortage, while upcoming overtime restrictions could create further construction delays. There are also unanswered questions about how to address transportation bottlenecks.
Add to that high ticket prices – almost the same as the cost of a trip to nearby Universal Studios Japan – and an apathetic public, it is no wonder that Expo organizers and Osaka officials are starting to panic. What seemed like a good idea in November 2018, when Osaka won hosting rights, has turned into a potential disaster of Tokyo Olympic proportions - one that Osaka residents worry might lead to tax increases to pay for the mess.
Under the current plan, the Osaka Kansai Japan 2025 Expo takes place on Yumeshima - "dream island" - an artificial island built on industrial waste. Over six months from April 13, 2025, the Expo is expected to draw about 28 million people, or more than 150,000 a day. A total of 153 countries and regions are expected to participate.
Fifty countries are supposed to have the largest and most complex pavilions. They come up with their own designs, which are turned into buildings by local Japanese construction firms pending approval by the Osaka city authorities. The process takes about two months. Therein lies the first problem.
The basic concept of the Expo pavilion plans was conceived, unofficially in some cases, in 2018 and 2019. I recall conversations at the time with local officials about the schedule leading up to 2025. Even then, there was a sense that construction needed to move quickly, although no one was panicking over potential delays. Then the Covid pandemic hit in 2020, just as more detailed schedules were being decided. That, along with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, created problems securing imported construction materials, while the weakening yen made them far more expensive.
Covid also forced the postponement of the 2020 Dubai Expo to 2021. This meant none of the Dubai participants was going to think seriously about 2025 until after that Expo finished in March 2022. This left just three years for everyone to solidify their plans for Osaka. But Japanese officials pushed on with the pre-Covid plans, despite growing warnings – including one given to me by Kansai Economic Federation officials in late 2021 – that the schedule for getting everything finished on time was getting much tighter.
By late last year, construction firms were telling Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government that Expo construction was falling behind schedule. Osaka officials were also starting to worry.
In May this year, the Osaka governor, Hirofumi Yoshimura, told the prime minister that officials needed to put more effort into the Expo. In July, the media dam broke when it was learned that no foreign countries had submitted applications for pavilion construction. Suddenly, everybody was talking about the Expo’s problems.
By last month, only South Korea and the Czech Republic had submitted applications for pavilion construction. Another six to 10 countries were said to be filing applications in the coming weeks. That’s progress, perhaps, but still a very long way from the 50 that are supposed to sign up.
That brings us to the second problem: labor. There are simply not enough workers to complete construction of 50 individually designed pavilions by April 2025, even if all of the remaining applications were filed tomorrow. Alternatives, including making prefabricated buildings available to participating countries, are being floated in the hope they could be built more quickly, more cheaply, and with fewer workers than the current plans for self-designed pavilions. That, of course, raises yet another concern, voiced by Yoshimura – that Expo will turn into a cheapened, scaled down, and aesthetically boring event that fails to draw visitors.
Even if the remaining countries quickly agreed to accept prefab pavilions and managed to create stunningly attractive displays within them, and if enough workers were found and quickly mobilized to build them on schedule, that would do nothing to alleviate the so-called “2024 problem” facing Japan’s construction industry.
Next April, changes in the labor laws will cap the number of overtime hours permitted in the construction industry. Expo officials with visions of construction crews working round the clock for months on end, racing against time to complete the pavilions before April 2025, are pressuring the Kishida government to exempt Expo workers from the new overtime cap.
Trade Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, whose ministry is the main government agency responsible for the project, has indicated his support for the exemption. But there is opposition among construction workers and Labor Minister Katsunobu Kato. Construction firms are worried about the risk of bidding for contracts under current conditions, only to see their profit margin hit later on due to unexpected price spikes for materials or higher labor costs from April. They want the government to help reduce the financial risks associated with the bids. There are signs that they are getting limited help, but even so, many firms are skeptical that much can be done to ensure everything is ready in time.
Beyond the pavilion issues lie several other problems. While a subway line out to Yumeshima is to be completed by 2025, access will still be limited. Shuttle buses and private cars will further clog the one bridge connecting the mainland with the island, which could be shut down if high winds hit the area. With 150,000 people a day expected on top of the usual vehicle traffic in and out of the area, the traffic jams could be epic. The 1970 Osaka Expo was infamous for massively crowded trains and clogged roads. That could be the same in 2025, assuming that the projected 28 million visitors actually show up.
There is no guarantee of that given the low level of enthusiasm. A July Yomiuri Shimbun poll showed that only 35% of respondents were interested in the Expo. The basic adult ticket price of ¥7,500 per person isn’t helping. Tickets bought in advance will cost ¥6,000 – and there are other admission fee options – but many think they are too expensive. By comparison, people aged 12 or over can buy a ticket to the neighboring Universal Studios Japan for ¥8,600.
Whatever further discounts are offered, it is clear the 2025 Expo is in deep trouble. Calls are growing in the Kansai region for the event to be postponed, in the hope that the additional time will be used to complete construction and generate public interest.
Some opponents believe the Expo should be canceled, saying the event, much like the Olympics, is a relic of the worldview prevalent during Japan’s high growth era of the 1960s. The Expo is a vanity project, they argue, led by older, powerful men who want to take a trip down memory lane, even though the Japan of 1970 is a far cry from the country of today. The central government and Expo officials insist, however, that cancellation or postponement are not being considered.
Unless construction and preparations pick up speed, and the other problems are addressed, the 2025 Expo may end up a massive failure - a sparsely attended, Japan-centric festival that is worth, at best, a single visit. It could be a fun day trip for locals or out-of-town visitors with time and money on their hands after a day at USJ. But it is far from being the large, exciting international spectacle befitting the title World Expo.
Eric Johnston is Senior National Correspondent for the Japan Times. Views expressed within are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Japan Times.
