Issue:
June 2024 | Japan Media Review
New succession debate could see popular Princess Aiko ascend the Chrysanthemum throne
In early April, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] announced it would soon begin discussions about measures to increase the number of members of the imperial family to guarantee a smooth succession process. The Diet will discuss two proposals made by a panel of experts in 2021 that were subsequently shelved. One would allow female members of the royal family to retain their imperial status after they marry. The other would create an adoption system for male members of the paternal line of former branches of the imperial family that were discontinued in 1947.
As pointed out by the Mainichi Shimbun in an April 19 article, the idea of changing the imperial succession system was first brought up two decades ago during the administration of Junichiro Koizumi. In November 2005, another panel of experts submitted a report to the government that recommended allowing female offspring of the emperor to ascend the throne, but due to opposition from conservative elements in the ruling party, discussions stalled. The impetus for the panel's proposal was the birth in 2001 of Princess Aiko, the only child of the current emperor, Naruhito, and Empress Masako.
Similarly, the revived interest by the government in changing the rules to allow for more imperial family members has coincided with Aiko's graduation from university and her formally taking on public duties reserved for the royal family. In addition, on April 1, Aiko started working in the youth volunteer section at the Japan Red Cross. Her work will eventually involve training young people for volunteer activities. All these events coincided to put Aiko in the news and stimulated greater public interest in her actions and statements.
In an article for President Online on April 12, royal family watcher Matsuhiko Motoki outlined how Aiko's public image had changed since she turned 20 two years ago. To commemorate that milestone Aiko gave a press conference - the first by herself – and most media agreed at the time that she handled herself very well, which they didn't expect.
Those low expectations had been engendered by the tabloids and weekly magazines. A piece posted by Bunshun Online on May 3 discussed Aiko's newfound confidence since she became an adult, something she hadn’t conveyed in the past, when she was invariably portrayed as being withdrawn. During her press conference, Aiko admitted to being overly shy as a child. An employee of Gakushuin, the private school she attended, told Bunshun that Aiko always held back in groups so as to not draw attention to herself. But this hesitancy seemed to go deeper, since she often didn't even answer when spoken to. In situations where she appeared with her mother, it was the then-Princess Masako who usually spoke for her because she rarely responded on her own. During her second year of elementary school, she stopped attending classes for a while, and the Imperial Household Agency (IHA) connected the absences with Masako's “adjustment disorder”, which had been diagnosed in 2004. The implication was that Aiko was affected by her mother's unstable moods, but the general feeling in the media was that Aiko herself was similarly afflicted, an opinion that persisted into her teenage years.
So, when Aiko acted like a typical royal at her solo press conference, the press reaction was more than positive; it was like a collective sigh of relief. Consequently, the weeklies and tabloids are already wondering about her marriage prospects, with several compiling suitable candidates. When questioned about these prospects, Aiko said that her ideal mate would be someone who is always smiling, an allusion to her own parents, who are often portrayed that way. But the subtext of these media projections is that a good portion of the Japanese public would like to see her become a reigning empress, according to Motoki's analysis, which goes on to suggest that this is unlikely due to the perceived political opposition to a female monarch. In fact, the reason the LDP is now reportedly ready to begin discussions about succession is that the party wants to nip these suppositions in the bud. Of the two 2021 proposals on the table, the LDP is interested in the one about adopting male former royal family members because that would better ensure an heir from the male side, regardless of how tenuous such a line really is historically.
This position, which tacitly negates the possibility of a female emperor as well as heirs produced by the female line of the family, has hardened over time, Motoki said. As already mentioned, the subject first came up during Koizumi's administration, and Koizumi himself favored changing the rules to allow for a female emperor. Even Shinzo Abe, who publicly dismissed the idea of a female emperor, accepted the possibility in private, according to Motoki. What shut down all speculation, he added, was the birth of Prince Hisahito to Naruhito's brother, Fumihito, the current crown prince, and his wife, Kiko, thus providing a male heir on the male side of the family. Any discussion about female lines and heirs quickly ended.
Aiko's newfound celebrity may have pushed the conservative wing of the LDP to try and institutionalize a clear system of succession that mandates heirs from the male line, but as Motoki points out, Aiko's popularity could put pressure on that system to accept a more realistic role for women in the royal family. Even if Aiko cannot be empress, that doesn't mean she won't have as much as, if not more of, the public's attention than any future emperor would.
It comes down to how changes in the rules will affect the way the royals interact with the public. Although the emperor system fundamentally changed after the war, the imperial family's image did not. The public feels that the royal family's status transcends any discussion of human rights, in particular any right to privacy, which means that they don't have any, as shown by former Princess Mako's lack of freedom from invasive scrutiny after she married Kei Komuro, a non-royal whose family history was tainted in the eyes of the media and the public. As per the imperial household rules, there was no legal restraint against Mako following her heart and marrying whomever she wanted although, technically, she needed the permission of a committee called the Kohitsu Kaigi. But there is an unspoken social restraint enforced by the public, which insists on a certain code of royal behavior on the part of imperial family members, even after they leave it.
Motoki thinks that when the Diet discusses changes to the rules defining royal family members, they should also discuss “what is demanded of the royal family and what the country needs from the emperor system”. A political scientist quoted in the President article distinguishes between European monarchies that eventually guaranteed human rights and accommodated democracy with those that didn't. In the end the latter monarchies, such as those in Germany and Russia, died out, while the former continued. These monarchies are now having to adapt again, this time to the greater demand for diversity, which includes the idea of gender equality.
Japan's emperor system does not recognize diversity, as it prevents a woman from ascending the throne. But the majority of Japanese people do accept diversity, and Aiko could prove to be an appealing member of the royal family if she could maintain the independence and presence of mind that her mother so famously lost when she married Naruhito. If female royal family members are allowed to remain after they marry, then even if Aiko married, she could still be a force for change. It's difficult to determine right now if Aiko is capable of being such a force, but Motoki points out that she seems to be an admirer of the Netherlands' Princess Amalia, who is the same age and turned down the ¥200 million-a-year allowance she was entitled to once she turned 18, since, as she saw it, she hadn't done anything to deserve it. Motoki thinks this stance is Amalia's acknowledgement of the general public's opinion of unearned privilege.
Whatever position Aiko carves out for herself, the general feeling in the mainstream press is that it won't be on the throne. An editorial about the succession question in the May 7 edition of the Asahi Shimbun stated that the rules should be changed so as to allow an heir from the maternal line but added that “changing the current succession order for Crown Prince Fumihito and Prince Hisahito is not feasible”. Motoki basically said the same thing. However, if you read the tabloids and the weeklies, there still seems to be an active notion that Aiko could end up being the next reigning monarch.
An article in the May 9 issue of Josei Jishin cites a Kyodo survey that found more than 90% of respondents said they would “accept a female emperor”. This statistic apparently “shocked” the IHA, since previously the rate was between 60% and 80%. An anonymous IHA told the newspaper that the public obviously felt Aiko's “presence” more acutely now, thanks to the positive media coverage she's received in recent months. The same official said it was clear that the Japanese people considered Aiko emperor material.
What is interesting is that Josei Jishin thinks the LDP could be swayed in that direction. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, says the magazine, plans to include the possibility of allowing Aiko to be emperor in the ongoing discussions about succession that started after Golden Week. It quotes an anonymous source in the party who said that Kishida and deputy prime minister Taro Aso met at the end of April to discuss ways of convincing the party to support the idea of Aiko becoming empress. The reason for this seemingly sudden change of heart was the LDP's disastrous showing in the supplemental elections that took place in April. The LDP lost all three Diet seats and the support rate for the cabinet remains at a historical low. Kishida, according to the article, believes that boosting Aiko as the next monarch would also improve his party’s fortunes.
This scenario suggests that conservative elements that have traditionally blocked any discussion of a female emperor isn't quite as monolithic as the mainstream press claims. Josei Jishin talked to one reporter on the royal beat who echoed Motoki's assertion that Abe was looking for a way to make Aiko empress before he died. There are precedents, too: Japan has had eight female monarchs, albeit all from the male line. Aiko would fit the bill since she is the daughter of the current emperor.
One expert said that if the majority of Japanese want Aiko to be emperor, there's no valid reason to deny their wish. Such a move would be the proper thing to do in a country that calls itself a democracy. What would be improper would be to allow a handful of conservatives to defy public opinion. However, the more difficult matter, according to Josei Jishin, is defying Crown Princess Kiko, the mother of Prince Hisahito, who is second in line to the throne. Kiko endured considerable pain and inconvenience giving birth to Hisahito at the age of 39, presumably as a service to the nation, which at the time did not have a male heir from the paternal line. Since then, she has made great efforts to prepare and educate her son to become the future emperor. But if the public has its way and Aiko takes the throne first, all that work will have been for nothing.
Philip Brasor is a Tokyo-based writer who covers entertainment, the Japanese media, and money issues. He writes the Japan Media Watch column for the Number 1 Shimbun.
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