Issue:
January 2026 | Cover story 1
Sanae Takaichi risks reaping a political whirlwind unless she slows down
When she became Japan’s first female prime minister in October, Sanae Takaichi promised to work like the devil, telling reporters that she understood that speed was of the essence.
She kept that promise, beginning her term in the manner of a champion sprinter, quick out of the starting blocks and racing through a short parliamentary session that ended with positive news for consumers and, as a result, high personal public approval ratings for Takaichi.
That momentarily took the momentum away from her Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] rivals, but now that we are into 2026, she is going to have to change her approach as she starts out on what promises to be a political marathon rather than a sprint.
After winning the LDP presidency, Takaichi forged a coalition agreement – to the surprise of many - with the Osaka-centric Japan Innovation Party [JIP], securing the votes she needed to be approved as prime minister in a parliamentary vote.
She barely had time to draw breath before she met multiple world leaders, including U.S. President Donal Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. At home, she pushed for tougher regulations for foreigners who want to live and work in Japan, and for the restart of nuclear reactors.
Takaichi may appear primed to sail seamlessly into the next parliamentary session, expected to begin later this month or in early February. But that could be an illusion. Unlike the 58-day autumn session of parliament, the upcoming session will last 150 days.
During that time, she will have to pass the fiscal 2026 budget. How she intends to fund the policies she promoted last year will come under far greater scrutiny from her own party, the opposition, and the media.
Politically fraught issues such as how to pay for increased defense spending, and how to cover lost tax revenue if the minimum taxable income is raised to ¥1.78 million, are potential flashpoints.
To get her way, Takaichi will have to be more patient than hasty, and display a sense of diplomacy – something she is not known for. Concern in the finance ministry that her policies require a lot of tax money, adding to Japan’s government debt, could create problems during parliamentary discussions ahead of the budget vote at the end of March. If she doesn’t deliver as promised, her popularity ratings could start falling and trigger talk of a snap election.
The godfather of the Takaichi administration is LDP vice president Taro Aso, who has strengthened his grip on the party in recent months.
As long as Takaichi is in Aso’s good books it will be difficult for LDP rivals to band together against her. But if Aso, a former finance minister, decides that Takaichi has gone too far or that her economic proposals are too risky, she could face an internal party revolt, forcing her to compromise in ways that could damage her popularity with the public.
Like Aso, Takaichi is gaffe-prone. Her emphasis on a heavy workload and doing things quickly risks depriving her of the time she needs to think about the possible impact of her words. This may have been the case in November, when she uttered her infamous remark indicating that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would threaten Japan’s survival and trigger a military response from Tokyo.
Was it a slip of the tongue, the utterance of a new leader exhausted by her relentless schedule and lack of sleep? Or was it a deliberate attempt by an anti-China hawk to stoke public fears in the hope of winning more support for her plans to beef up Japan’s military and security spending?
Whatever the reasons, she will continue to deal with the fallout from her remarks in 2026. Unlike her predecessors, however, Takaichi has no close allies with connections to the Chinese leadership. In the LDP, that role was long handled by former secretary generals Toshihiro Nikai and Hiroshi Moriyama, and by the leaders of former coalition partner Komeito. But neither is close to Takaichi. In addition, it is far from clear if U.S. President Donald Trump – who wants to improve Washington’s ties with Beijing – will back a tough Takaichi stance on China.
Dealing with China is expected to be her top foreign policy challenge in 2026. She needs to find a way to re-engage with Beijing while dealing with the threats it poses to Japan’s interests. And she will have to consider all what Trump might say or do that could strengthen or undermine her approach.
Takaichi’s other big challenge will be to keep her coalition together. The LDP- JIP partnership was a marriage of political convenience and Takaichi was not the LDP leader the JIP originally thought it would deal with (that was Shinjiro Koizumi). The JIP’s signature policy is its push to cut Diet seats by 10%, something to which Takaichi hastily agreed. But both the LDP and the opposition parties are wary of the move, and we are seeing attempts to slow down the pace of discussions on the issue.
Regardless, even Takaichi acknowledges her party is not unified on the issue. That means it could be a while before the LDP-JIP bill is taken up for discussion, and when it is, there is no guarantee it will pass.
Perhaps sensing that the JIP, which never outgrow its Osaka base and could either bolt the coalition or possibly damage her administration’s support rate, Takaichi made overtures to the Democratic Party of the People at the end of last year, partly thanks to behind-the-scenes talks by Aso, his brother-in-law LDP Secretary General Shunichi Suzuki, and DPP Secretary General Kazuya Shinba.
Some might find a three party ruling coalition in 2026 an attractive proposition. But the logistics, especially appointing opposition MPs to the cabinet and coordinating election candidates from three parties, suggest that a broader coalition is unlikely.
Takaichi might decide to call a snap election after the 2026 budget is passed. Or she might wait until summer, after the end of a marathon parliamentary session. An election would provide the clearest answer yet to a question that has hung over Takaichi since October: does she have the stamina to pace herself for the long haul, or is she a short-distance runner after all?
Eric Johnston is the Senior National Correspondent for the Japan Times. The views expressed within are his own and do not represent those of the Japan Times.
